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Keytruda (pembrolizumab) · anti-PD-1 · Merck & Co.
This page covers the 1L recurrent/metastatic HNSCC indication only (KEYNOTE-048, NPC excluded), not the perioperative resectable (KEYNOTE-689), 2L post-platinum (KEYNOTE-040/-012), or non-H&N Keytruda settings. See all Keytruda indications →
Verified on label; year correct, exact date added. Approved 2019-06-10 on KEYNOTE-048, which created two label statements in 1.4: the all-comers combination ('in combination with platinum and fluorouracil (FU)... for the first-line treatment of patients with metastatic or with unresectable, recurrent HNSCC') and the monotherapy option gated on CPS >=1. The row's '1L head & neck SCC' covers both, but note the monotherapy half is biomarker-restricted while the chemo combination is not. The same 2019-06-10 action converted the older 2L HNSCC accelerated approval (granted 2016-08-05) to traditional approval. Traditional approval throughout; nothing withdrawn.
All markets
2026 net revenue · modelled HNSCC slice
$1.97B
CONCLUDED · 2026 modelled net revenue - indication slice, all markets; Merck & Co. reports no indication revenue. Modelled net revenue · sourced funnel
No model change since the 20 Sep 2026 snapshot.
The 15-second read
This is a won setting with a dated ending. KEYNOTE-048 displaced EXTREME as the 1L standard in recurrent/metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (pembro+chemo OS HR 0.77; monotherapy HR 0.61 at CPS≥20), and pembrolizumab has stayed effectively unchallenged there ever since, nivolumab+ipilimumab tried to enter and failed outright, CheckMate-651 missing both primary OS endpoints. The model gives it a broad plateau at $1.97B across 2025–27, roughly 6% of Merck's ~$31.7B Keytruda franchise, and then takes it to $800M by 2034. Nothing clinical causes that: the entire back half of this curve is the US composition-of-matter LOE around 2028 and the EU around 2029, applied at the monoclonal-antibody precedent of 40–60% volume loss within twelve months. The honest read is that competitive risk and revenue risk have come apart here, Merck will very likely still own the standard of care in 2032 and will be collecting less than half of today's revenue for it, and the one lever that changes the outcome is subcutaneous Keytruda Qlex conversion, which the model monetises inside the branded line rather than treating as upside.
Threats land:Pembrolizumab biosimilars land at the aggressive end of the mAb precedent, 60% volume loss inside twelve months of the ~2028 US entry, and Qlex conversion fails to hold administration share, compressing the modelled three-year glide from $1.96B (2027) to $1.02B (2030) into a single-year cliff.
Modelled path:Pembrolizumab holds its position in the addressable 1L R/M IO-eligible pool through the 2027 plateau, then loses branded volume across 2028–30 to biosimilars in the US and EU, stabilising at the modelled ~$800–870M residual tail.
Levers land:Subcutaneous Qlex conversion moves a substantial share of patients onto a presentation IV biosimilars cannot substitute before the ~2028 LOE, and petosemtamab's Phase 3 LiGeR-HN1 reads out as a combination WITH pembrolizumab rather than against it, intensifying the regimen and defending the branded line through the cliff.
The recurrent/metastatic, 1L-systemic-eligible fraction of incident HNSCC, modelled at roughly 50–55% of the squamous head and neck base, built from about 10% de-novo metastatic plus relapse after curative therapy and then cut for ECOG and platinum fitness, is the single largest estimate in this model and an Ormeval scoping estimate throughout. It sets the pool that every share and price assumption multiplies, and no registry reports it directly.
At a glance
Mechanism anti-PD-1
Clinical
Commercial
Development to approval
These are regulatory approval dates (FDA/EMA/NMPA/PMDA), not commercial launch; launch follows after pricing & reimbursement (see the access-lag column in the HTA table). All four regulators have approved this indication. Cross-checked against Merck & Co. disclosures and regulator databases.
1L R/M HNSCC is the indication that proved PD-L1-selected anti-PD-1 monotherapy could replace a cytotoxic-antibody standard (EXTREME) and extended Keytruda's reach into head & neck oncology. At a ~$2.0B modelled peak it is a meaningful mid-sized franchise slice and the anchor of Merck's head & neck position, now reinforced by the perioperative KEYNOTE-689 expansion into earlier-stage disease. Strategically it is a defended leadership story: nivolumab failed to enter 1L (CheckMate-651), so pembrolizumab is effectively unchallenged in-setting, the main forward pressure is the ~2028 US biologic LOE.
Recurrent/metastatic HNSCC, incurable disease after locoregional failure or de-novo metastasis, was an EXTREME-regimen setting with ~10-month median survival until KEYNOTE-048. Pembrolizumab ± chemo is now the global 1L standard (pembro+chemo total OS HR 0.77; mono CPS≥20 HR 0.61), with ~85% of patients PD-L1 CPS ≥1. It is a mid-sized Keytruda slice (~$2B modelled peak), effectively unchallenged after nivolumab's CheckMate-651 failure, and exposed to the ~2028 biologic LOE.
Recurrent/metastatic HNSCC is incurable disease, either distant metastasis or locoregional recurrence not amenable to surgery/re-irradiation, managed with palliative systemic therapy. Squamous histology dominates (~90% of head & neck cancer ex-NPC); nasopharyngeal carcinoma is biologically distinct and carved out (critical for China, where NPC is ~38% of head & neck cancer). The 1L-IO-eligible pool is the R/M, platinum-/ECOG-fit fraction (~50-55% of HNSCC), sub-stratified by PD-L1 CPS: CPS ≥1 (~85%) can receive monotherapy or chemo-IO, CPS <1 gets chemo-IO. Across the 8 modelled markets ~70,000 patients/year are 1L-R/M-IO-eligible, the pool this model sizes, concentrated in the US, China and Japan.
KEYNOTE-048 made pembrolizumab the first-line standard for recurrent/metastatic HNSCC, displacing the decade-old EXTREME (cetuximab + chemo) regimen. Pembrolizumab + chemo improved OS in the total population (HR 0.77) and pembrolizumab monotherapy improved OS in PD-L1-selected patients (CPS ≥20 HR 0.61; CPS ≥1 HR 0.78), defining a PD-L1-stratified 1L IO standard that competitors (nivolumab, CheckMate-651) failed to match.
Mandatory at diagnosis: PD-L1 CPS by IHC (selects monotherapy vs chemo-IO) and exclusion of nasopharyngeal histology. CPS <1 (~15%) is the main eligibility leak toward chemo-IO/EXTREME. Testing completeness is high in the West/Japan, lower in China.
Phase 3 randomized open-label (n=882): untreated locally-incurable R/M HNSCC (NPC excluded) randomized to pembrolizumab monotherapy (n=301), pembrolizumab + platinum + 5-FU (n=281), or EXTREME cetuximab + platinum + 5-FU (n=300). Pembrolizumab 200 mg q3w up to 35 cycles. Primary endpoints OS and PFS, tested across PD-L1 CPS strata.
Load-bearing 5/6 sourced. ASSUMED uptake is yours to change.
This indication only, not Keytruda's total revenue
First-line recurrent or metastatic head & neck squamous cell carcinoma (oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx, larynx; nasopharyngeal carcinoma excluded), pembrolizumab monotherapy (PD-L1 CPS ≥1) or pembrolizumab + platinum + 5-FU (all-comers), per KEYNOTE-048. Both regimens are modelled within the single branded Keytruda line.
Reported actuals are always drawn and need no chip: a cited reported figure is a fact, not a claim. Everything forward of them is one of the 4 kinds above.
$1.97B
8 modelled markets (US, EU5, JP, CN) · modelled net revenue · 2026 (forecast)
Peak $1.97B · launch 2019 → 2034
modeled history (left of today)·click any year to decompose its funnel below.
Measured band: none - no measured band: n<8
Bull / bear elsewhere in the product are a sensitivity (fixed multipliers), not this band.
Pre-2026 figures are MODELLED and calibrated to Merck's reported Keytruda franchise (FY2025 ≈ $31.7B): the 1L R/M HNSCC slice rises from the 2019 KN-048 launch to a ~$2.0B plateau across 2027-28 ≈ ~6% of the franchise, then erodes from ~2028 into the biosimilar cliff. The slice is anchored to the expanding 8-market R/M HNSCC market (~$2.0B in 2024 → ~$4.5B by 2034, all drugs/lines per GlobalData), with pembrolizumab the dominant IO. The 'today' marker splits modelled history from forecast.
No reported anchor exists at this grain: companies publish this asset as one product line and never split it by indication × country, so every year above is modelled, including the years already past. The claims below are scored against reported actuals wherever a program has them.
A forecast year closes when an actual is reported for it. A miss is the distance from that actual, signed as the claim fell: under it, or over it.
| Claim | Closed years | Worst miss | Worst miss % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ormeval modelMODELLED · Ormeval · live | - | no closed year yet | - |
A superseded team version keeps its own row: what it was off by is still a fact about that version. A row with no closed year is not a good score.
What it shows. A modelled base-case net-revenue curve for this indication, year by year, split at 'today' into modelled history and forecast, with the branded curve shown against its in-class rivals.
What to look for. The peak year and how steep the decline is after loss of exclusivity, and where a rival's curve crosses yours, that crossing is the share the model has you losing.
Common misread. Reading the pre-'today' portion as reported actuals (it's modelled), or treating the base case as a company target. It is one deterministic Ormeval-modelled scenario anchored to cited actuals, not guidance and not analyst consensus.
Key model assumptions · Beyond the R/M eligible fraction, the softest input is China: the model strips nasopharyngeal carcinoma from the incidence base entirely (it is outside KEYNOTE-048 and roughly 38% of China's head and neck count, the biggest over-counting trap in the setting), then applies the narrowest label (monotherapy at CPS≥20), ~55% testing and access reach, a ~$30k/yr NRDL net, and a ~22% pool position for cheaper domestic PD-1s. That is four stacked judgments in the largest incidence market, and the digest itself flags it as the biggest judgement call in the model.
The decline is defended, not certain
The decline is dated rather than argued, which makes it the well-defended part: US composition-of-matter exclusivity around 2028, EU around 2029, and an erosion rate taken from the observed monoclonal-antibody precedent of 40–60% volume loss in the first year. What is genuinely uncertain is the slope and the floor. The model spreads the loss over 2028–30 and then holds ~$800M, an assumption that biosimilar substitution in a specialist buy-and-bill oncology setting is gradual and leaves a durable branded remnant. Subcutaneous Qlex (approved September 2025) is the reason that could be right, but it is also why the erosion could be far shallower than modelled, so this tail is uncertain in both directions rather than just one.
What would change our mind
The base case is wrong if pembrolizumab biosimilar entry slips past 2029 in the US, patent litigation or manufacturing delay would move roughly $700M of modelled 2029–30 erosion out of the window entirely and make the $1.0B 2030 figure far too low. The sharper clinical falsifier is petosemtamab: LiGeR-HN1 is a Phase 3 of the EGFR×LGR5 bispecific in combination with pembrolizumab, and this model treats it as neutral-to-additive, but if Merus reads out with petosemtamab displacing rather than intensifying the pembrolizumab-based regimen in 1L, the model's core premise that this setting is uncontested fails, and it fails independently of the LOE.
A scenario is your own assumptions layered on Ormeval’s cited baseline. We never change the baseline; save as many named scenarios as you like and click one to load it back later.
| Driver · 2026 | US | FR | DE | IT | ES | UK | JP | CN | Total | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head & neck cancer incidence (ex-NPC) (2026) | 58k | 17k | 16k | 12k | 9.1k | 13k | 24k | 87k | 236k | GLOBOCAN 2022 (ex-NPC) |
New head & neck cancer cases/yr (lip/oral, oropharynx, hypopharynx, larynx, nasopharynx EXCLUDED); +1.5%/yr (HPV-driven oropharyngeal rise). Shown for 2026: 2024 basis +2%/yr → ×1.030. Country-specific GLOBOCAN 2022 head & neck incidence with nasopharyngeal carcinoma carved OUT (NPC is biologically distinct and outside the KEYNOTE-048 indication, ~38% of China's head & neck count). +1.5%/yr reflects rising HPV-driven oropharyngeal disease in the West. | ||||||||||
| × Squamous histology (HNSCC)est | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | share, not summed | SEER histology |
Squamous-cell carcinoma (vs salivary/other); ~90% of head & neck cancer ex-NPC. Squamous-cell carcinoma is ~90% of non-nasopharyngeal head & neck cancer; the remainder (salivary, sarcoma, melanoma) is excluded from the KEYNOTE-048 indication. | ||||||||||
| × Recurrent/metastatic (1L-eligible)est | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 50% | 50% | 50% | share, not summed | SEER · recurrence lit. |
De-novo metastatic (~10%) + locoregional recurrence not amenable to salvage surgery/re-RT (~40-45%), the 1L-systemic-eligible R/M fraction. ~50-55% of HNSCC ultimately becomes recurrent/metastatic and 1L-systemic-eligible (de-novo metastatic ~10% plus relapse after curative therapy). Further haircut for ECOG 0-1/platinum fitness. The biggest cross-market estimate in this model (sensitise 0.45-0.60). | ||||||||||
| × IO-eligible & 1L-treated (PD-L1-tested)est | 80% | 80% | 80% | 76% | 76% | 78% | 82% | 55% | share, not summed | testing audits |
PD-L1 CPS-tested, fit for and receiving 1L IO-based therapy. Branded pembrolizumab UPTAKE is the share row below (excluded here). Captures PD-L1 CPS testing completeness and fitness for 1L IO-based therapy (excludes those who get best supportive care or are untested/unfit). High in Western academic systems and Japan (~0.78-0.82); lower in China (~0.55, testing/oncology access concentrated in tier-1/2 cities). Excludes pembrolizumab UPTAKE (the competitive share layer below). | ||||||||||
| = Addressable 1L R/M IO pool | 22k | 6.5k | 6.1k | 4.1k | 3.2k | 4.5k | 9.0k | 21k | 77k | computed |
Incidence (ex-NPC) × the rates above, recurrent/metastatic HNSCC patients reachable for 1L IO-based therapy this year. The 1L R/M HNSCC pool is broadly stable, with rising HPV-driven oropharyngeal incidence in the West roughly offset by the perioperative KEYNOTE-689 expansion diverting some earlier-stage patients, and from ~2028 a slow erosion as earlier-stage IO keeps patients out of the R/M setting longer. | ||||||||||
| × Keytruda uptake (branded) | 30% | 29% | 29% | 28% | 28% | 29% | 28% | 13% | share, not summed | ASSUMED |
Per-market branded uptake of the addressable pool this year (launch ramp net of competitors & biosimilars). See the competitive curve below; pick a market for its access basis. | ||||||||||
| = Treated with Keytruda | 6.5k | 1.8k | 1.8k | 1.1k | 890 | 1.3k | 2.6k | 2.8k | 19k | computed · assumed input |
Addressable pool × branded uptake. | ||||||||||
| × Net price / patient (2026) | $173K | $86K | $91K | $82K | $77K | $85K | $72K | $29K | per patient, not summed | ASP · HTA · NRDL |
Until-progression IO: per-patient revenue is the annual net cost while on-drug. US ASP ≈ $11.8k/200mg q3w (~$205k/yr list) net of ~10-15% GTN → ~$180k/yr. EU nets ~$80-95k. Japan ~$75k (biennial NHI cuts). China NRDL → ~$30k/yr. −2%/yr forward; held flat before 2024. SHOWN FOR 2026: the per-market figures in "Net pricing: assumptions & basis" below are the 2024 basis; this row applies -2%/yr from 2024 (×0.9604), so it is the same source value at a later date, not a second price. | ||||||||||
| = Net revenue / yrOutput | $1.12B | $160M | $161M | $92.9M | $68.3M | $108M | $184M | $79.8M | $1.97B | computed · assumed input |
Treated patients × realized net price. | ||||||||||
Regional revenue mix · 2026 modelled
Model estimate, sourced from the funnel table above
No reported competitor-share series exists for this setting, so every trajectory below is modelled from approval timing, label breadth and the funnel, not reported data.
In-class share, 1L recurrent/metastatic HNSCC: 8 modelled markets (US, EU5, JP, CN)
Each agent's share of the addressable 1L-R/M-IO pool. The branded-pembrolizumab line shows the launch ramp to 1L dominance, then the ~2028 LOE biosimilar erosion; the gap below the top line is patients on EXTREME/chemo-only, untreated, or (China) domestic PD-1s. The branded pembrolizumab line, monotherapy (CPS≥1) plus chemo-IO, IV and SC Qlex, is the only line this model monetizes.
Share of the 77k-patient addressable 1L R/M IO pool this regimen is modelled to treat, by year
Keytruda is modelled at 24% of this pool in 2026, peaking at 24% in 2026; each point of share is revenue on the chart above.
Scope: 8 modelled markets (US, EU5, JP, CN) · follows the market selector above
Rivals' share, same pool
Cetuximab + chemo (EXTREME) holds the largest rival share in 2026, 4% of the pool; that is the share Keytruda has to take or hold.
Rivals, rescaled - note the axis maximum (20%), which is smaller than the plot above. Same data, a linear axis of its own, so a low-share entrant is readable rather than a hairline on the baseline.
Launch ramp = market-by-market approval/reimbursement timing (US Jun 2019, EU/Japan Dec 2019, China Dec 2020); EXTREME (cetuximab+chemo) is the displaced legacy regimen; domestic Chinese PD-1s take China-only share; pembrolizumab biosimilars timed to the ~2028 US / ~2029 EU LOE. Competitor trajectories are stated assumptions, not reported shares.
Readouts, approvals and LOE events for pembrolizumab and its rivals in this setting. Estimated timing is flagged; confirmed dates cited from Merck & Co. disclosures and regulator databases.
Composition-of-matter expiry (~2028); pembrolizumab biosimilars erode the branded HNSCC line
EU biosimilar entry; SC Qlex conversion mitigates IV-biosimilar share loss
EGFR×LGR5 bispecific + pembro Phase 3 in 1L R/M HNSCC, the emerging 1L disruptor to watch
✓ = reported public fact, cited. Upcoming timing is estimated from company guidance and trial registries, a projection, not a commitment. Approvals = US (FDA) · EU (EMA) · Japan (PMDA) · China (NMPA). ● = pembrolizumab, competitor tag = a same-setting rival.
Residual unmet need: why the field stays alive
Even on pembrolizumab-based 1L therapy, median OS in R/M HNSCC is only ~13-15 months and most patients die within two years; PD-L1-low/negative patients benefit least, and there is no established post-IO standard. HPV-negative, smoking-related and platinum-refractory disease respond poorly, and salvage options after IO failure are limited. That residual mortality sustains development of EGFR×LGR5 bispecifics (petosemtamab, LiGeR-HN1), antibody-drug conjugates and novel IO combinations despite pembrolizumab's entrenched 1L dominance.
The synthesis for this indication, grounded in the cited trial, guideline and access facts above.
Rivals in this setting (1L recurrent/metastatic HNSCC)
Swipe to explore →
| Rival / regimen | Developer | Position in this setting | Approved (date, trial, n) | Head start vs this regimen (months) | Failed endpoint | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nivolumab + ipilimumab (Defeated) | Bristol Myers Squibb | DefeatedwhyFAILED, CheckMate-651 missed both primary OS endpoints (all-randomized HR 0.95; CPS≥20 HR 0.78, missed boundary); no approved 1L R/M HNSCC indication. Nivolumab is 2L-only (CheckMate-141). | not in the record | not in the record | OS (both primary endpoints) | CheckMate-651, nivolumab+ipilimumab fails 1L R/M HNSCC (Haddad, JCO 2023) |
| Cetuximab + chemo (EXTREME) (Live threat) | Merck KGaA / Lilly | Live threatwhyThe legacy 1L standard KEYNOTE-048 displaced (mOS 10.1 vs 7.4 mo, HR 0.80); now the CPS<1 fallback and price anchor. | not in the record | not in the record | - | EXTREME, cetuximab + chemo (Vermorken, NEJM 2008) |
| Petosemtamab (MCLA-158) + pembrolizumab (Watch) | Merus | WatchwhyThe emerging 1L disruptor, Phase 3 in combination WITH pembrolizumab; could intensify (or, as monotherapy, challenge) the 1L standard. | not in the record | not in the record | - | LiGeR-HN1 (Ph3, 1L R/M) |
| Domestic Chinese PD-1s (toripalimab et al.) (China rival) | Junshi / others | China rivalwhyNRDL-listed, far cheaper, structural China 1L share pressure for branded Keytruda. | not in the record | not in the record | - | NMPA / NRDL |
| Keytruda Qlex (subcutaneous) (Merck & Co. pipeline) | Merck | Merck & Co. pipelinewhyFDA-approved Sep 2025, intra-brand LOE/convenience defense (monetized within the branded line). | Sep 2025, - | -75 (after) | - | Keytruda Qlex (subcutaneous) FDA approval (Merck, Sep 2025) |
| Pembrolizumab biosimilars (Watch) | Generic (post-LOE) | WatchwhyUS LOE ~2028; EU ~2029, erosion of the branded HNSCC line (mAb precedent 40-60% volume loss in 12 months). | not in the record | not in the record | - | pembrolizumab LOE ~2028 (US) |
Not every rival is approved in every region, so a share here is the modelled position in the markets where it competes, not a global one.
Net pricing: assumptions & basis
Pembrolizumab is dosed 200 mg q3w (or 400 mg q6w) IV, or via subcutaneous Qlex (Sep 2025), until progression or 35 cycles (~2-year cap), so per-patient revenue is the annual net cost while on-drug. US ASP ~$11.8k per 200 mg; net prices below are per-market.
Figures below are 2024 net prices, the basis the model is anchored on. The funnel applies -2%/yr from 2024, so the price it consumes for a later year is lower than the figure quoted here. Both come from this one value; the funnel row states the year it is showing.
Pembrolizumab is dosed 200 mg q3w (or 400 mg q6w) IV, or as SC Qlex (FDA Sep 2025), until progression or a 35-cycle (~2-year) cap, so per-patient revenue is the annual net cost while on treatment. US ASP ≈ $11,795/200 mg q3w (~$205k/yr list) ⇒ ~$180k/yr net after ~10-15% GTN. EU nets HTA-negotiated (~$80-95k). Japan NHI ~$75k. China NRDL ~$30k. −2%/yr forward; held flat before 2024. ALL net prices are ESTIMATES.
What it shows. The approval-to-reimbursement journey by market: when each payer granted access, on what terms (PD-L1 or comparator restrictions), and the lag between regulatory approval and reimbursed revenue.
What to look for. The access-lag column, approval is not revenue and some markets take a year or more. And the restrictions that narrow the eligible population below the full label.
Common misread. Assuming a US price or approval transfers to other markets. Ex-US payers benchmark against comparators and reference prices, so the net price and the covered population are usually smaller.
Rows ordered by access speed. The approval→reimbursement lag is commercially load-bearing, and it is not one number per drug: a monotherapy indication and a later combination extension file separately with a payer and can reach routine commissioning years apart, even within the same asset’s first-line setting.
| Market | HTA body | Decision | Access lag | PD-L1 | Comparator | Key outcome / MEA note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | FDA | 10 Jun 2019 (KN-048) | reference | mono CPS≥1; all-comers + chemo | EXTREME (cetuximab + chemo) | Medicare Part B (J9271); broad commercial; ~10-15% gross-to-net on a physician-administered biologic |
| Germany | G-BA / IQWiG | 2019-2020 | ~0.5 yr | mono CPS≥1; all + chemo | EXTREME | Reimbursed near launch; AMNOG net below list; densest EU access |
| France | HAS | 2019-2020 | ~0.7 yr | CPS≥1 mono; all + chemo | EXTREME | Early access then reimbursement; SMR important |
| Japan | PMDA / NHI | 20 Dec 2019 | ~0.4 yr | mono + combo (regardless of CPS) | EXTREME | NHI-listed; broadest label (no CPS gate); biennial NHI price cuts |
| UK | NICE TA661 | 2020-2021 | ~1.5 yr | CPS≥1 (label-gated) | EXTREME | Recommended via CDF/routine commissioning; confidential PAS |
| Italy | AIFA | 2020-2021 | ~1.5 yr | CPS≥1 mono; all + chemo | EXTREME | Class H; managed entry; +regional formulary lag |
| Spain | SEFH / MoH | 2020-2021 | ~2 yr | CPS≥1 mono; all + chemo | EXTREME | Financed 1L; +17-region formulary lag |
| China | NMPA / NRDL | 11 Dec 2020 | ~1.5 yr | monotherapy only, CPS ≥20 | EXTREME / domestic PD-1 | Narrowest label (mono CPS≥20); NPC carve-out + cheaper domestic PD-1s cap penetration |
How much each assumption could move the forecast, one at a time, over the same cited baseline.
This is a sensitivity illustration, not a probability: it shows how far each assumption could move the forecast, never how likely it is.
Set a target and solve for one lever, what it would have to reach, benchmarked against real comparable launches.
One lever at a time: the other assumptions stay at baseline, so the trade-off stays visible.
A model that shows where its own risk is, not a number to trust. Never investment advice.
Cite this forecast as recorded on Q2 2026 → A permanent record of these figures that does not change when the model does.
Every reported figure here traces to a public source below; the model's own assumptions are labelled where they appear.
Reported figures are public facts from company filings; the forward peak is Ormeval's own modelled estimate, not company guidance and not analyst consensus. Approval and readout dates are cross-checked against public regulator and company disclosures. Not investment advice.